Sunday, 26 April 2009

Poll shows fatigue has set-in....

. A gaggle of sites are blogging the new You Gov poll. On the surface there is nothing spectacular to say; the Tories lead is steady at 18%. However, the figures of real interest to me are the broad levels of support that are shown for the policies outlined in the Budget; 64% said they supported the 50p band increase in income tax, 82% the rise in tobacco duty and 66% the increase in beer. This confirms to me the feeling that Cameron's attempt to roll them all into one and claim it is a giant tax hike for all will be unsuccessful. People are so used to increases in 'sin tax's' that they simply don't bother to oppose them now because they know well and good that any political party would raise them in office.

Cameron would be much better advised to focus on the upcoming increase in National Insurance; George Osborne's comments on the 50p band and its repeal not being a priority show that the Conservatives leadership know that although the 50p band may well be symbolic in terms of revenue raised it is actually not unpopular at all a) because so few people will be affected by it and b) a climate of austerity in most peoples eyes rightly equates to those who earn more paying more in tax.

The second major point is drawn out by Mike Smithson on Political Betting when he says;

"Maybe we have reached a point where there is little Labour can do. Voters want change."

This point is rather hammered home by the fact that support for the measures in the Budget only translates into 5% more likely to vote Labour in the You Gov poll and rather counter-intuitively 23% less likely. This also suggests that even if the economy by a minor miracle does start to recover at the speed Alistair Darling dreams of it won't save the government. Meanwhile, as an aside, the petition asking Brown to resign has now reached 8,000 signatures. There really is nothing more Labour can do and the longer it stays in office the more comprehensive its defeat will be.

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