Sunday, 15 February 2009

Are the Lib Dems really up??

. Well look what happens; you go away for a few weeks (let's just not talk about it) and you come back and the whole political universe seems to have changed. Maybe not quite but the first item that caught my attention was the two polls showing good Liberal Democrat support and Anthony Wells's report on it at UK Polling Report. Significantly, the poll advances are at the expense of Labour which vindicates the view that a) the Labour vote is the vote in motion and b) targeting that vote is the way forward to polling advance.

Wells concerns himself with asking whether this is a blip but also suggests another explanation for the rise which has implications for the orientation of the party;

"Looking at the details of ICM and ComRes part of what also appears to have happened in both of them is that people who voted Lib Dem in 2005 are much more likely to vote Lib Dem now than a month ago (Lib Dem “voter retention” has gone up from 64% to 72% in ICM, 69% to 84% in ComRes)."

So, those who 'came over' from Labour are feeling more comfortable sticking with us and are less likely to return to Labour. Obviously the message we have been putting forward on the economy is starting to penetrate peoples minds and ex-Labour voters are starting to become more confident of us delivering what they want above Gordon Brown. One other thing I note about the poll's is that David Cameron's Conservatives have reestablished their commanding lead in the intergrum and Labour are returning to their pre-Xmas bounce levels. Obviously, I am going to spend the day playing something catch-up....

9 comments:

asquith said...

Cameron has, in my opinion, not adapted to changing times which is why he is not as strong as he might be, especially in relation to Cable (because as much as I like Clegg, it's Cable who is probably most responsible for this).

http://dry-valleys.blogspot.com/2009/02/will-workhouse-ozzy-do-right-thing.html

He has failed to realise that his showroom policy belongs to the old, dead times from before 2008. I actually admire him for not playing me-too with Brown's idiotic "policies", as you will recall that I am a small-stater, but this particular policy is one that is unjust & should be binned.

Support people who are struggling to make a hard living, not those who will inherit a big pile, whose numbers get fewer every year & shit.

I know it's all political, but even so.

Oranjepan said...

Good to have you back, Darrell.

What are your thoughts on the SLF? Ms Gore is concerned, so I'm guessing you're enthused.

Newmania said...

What about the You Gov Poll , has the LD`s own on 14%

Anton Howes said...

The key thing to remember about polls is that they are merely snapshots of opinion at certain points in time.

Even pollsters (was once privileged enough to have a chat with Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI) are adamant that poll ratings cannot be used to predict the future. So, right now the LibDems are indeed on 22% by some polls, and 14% by others - what they'll be at in a few months time could be completely different. He said that the only one that matters, and even then could be wrong, is the poll the night before the election.

...he then promptly went on to predict that Obama would win...

Charlotte Gore said...

Nemesis!

Darrell G said...

Oranjepan,

Lol you'd guess right...

In general, its true that polls are a reflection of the moment...but ive obviously come back at a different moment to the one i left....

Charlotte...

Thanks :) lol....

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