Saturday, 31 May 2008

Tories to 'let companies run schools'

Today's Daily Telegraph reports that David Cameron "emboldened" by the Conservatives poll lead is to propose that private companies be allowed to take over state schools. The measures will borrow elements from Sweden's system of 'free schools' where companies run more than 900 primary and secondary schools. Parents are given vouchers that are redeemable with the school of their choice. The companies that run the schools compete for pupils and receive funding in proportion to the number they attract.

This strikes me as inherently grotesque. Already we have the problems with over-testing and 'league tables' and the Conservatives are actually proposing to make it much worse by introducing corporate competition into the mix, we can expect to see the focus of education moving further and further away from educating to a 'production-line' 'results factory' ethos.

The Tories scheme would also give companies the freedom to determine teacher salaries and more control over the curriculum. However, they would have to abide by the admissions code and would have no powers to select pupils beyond those already enjoyed by maintained schools, which can choose 10 per cent of their intake on the basis of aptitude in a particular specialism.

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Democrats decide fate of Florida and Michigan

The Democratic Party is meeting to decide the fate of two states whose delegates will not be seated at it's convention in August. Florida and Michigan were stripped of representation for holding their candidate contests in January, in violation of party rules.

Hillary Clinton's hopes of getting the nomination rest on whether the party will reverse its decision in the two states, which both strongly supported her. She won both states but neither candidate campaigned in either state and Barack Obama's name was not even on the ballot in Michigan. However, even if the committee award her every Florida and Michigan delegate she officially won in January's discounted elections, her net delegate boost would be just 43.

30 members of the Democratic party's rules and bylaws committee are meeting in the ballroom of a Washington hotel. They were greeted by about 200 protesters holding placards gathered chanting "Count our vote". Given the way the ballot was conducted awarding the delegates as is can hardly be considered democratic or fair - it is far more likely the committee will opt for a compromise which would most likely involve half the delegates being seated.

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Friday, 30 May 2008

Conservative candidate for Henley selected

Conservative Home reports that the Conservative candidate will be Cllr Dr John Howell. His bio;

"Formerly a partner in Ernst & Young responsible for opening Eastern Europe after communism. Latterly a presenter for BBC World. Now specialises in international visual communications. Adviser to successive UK governments on overseas trade and aid. Parish Councillor in Warborough, local organist and choir director and environmental campaigner. OBE (2000). "

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Clegg - green taxes must be 'recycled'

Nick Clegg has said that all green taxes had to be 'recycled' in order for the public to "sign up to green taxes" in remarks reported on Politics Home. He said that in his view the imposition of 'green taxes' should be offset by reductions in income tax. Certainly it is fair to say that the current focus of this debate is on the amount of tax people are paying and the damaging effect that is having on family budgets. In this climate the green lobbies voice is struggling to be heard.

He also said that in his view "instead of endlessly tinkering around with excise duties and fuel duty, we should move in the medium to long-term to a system of road-user charging where people pay for the amount that they drive". Clegg also raised questions about where the money to fund the government's assistance package was coming from; it certainly isn't from companies like Shell who reported record-breaking annual profits of £13.9bn earlier this year.

At the risk of sounding like a 'bit of a lefite' I can't help wondering why these profits are not being mentioned by any side of this debate. The consumer is being punished by both the blunt instrument of taxation and companies who are making a mint out of the rising price of oil. Meanwhile, there is absolutely no incentive for these companies to develop alternative fuels. The case for swinging taxation of profits, if only it is a 'windfall' one, is clear and will help those in need and the environment.

Thursday, 29 May 2008

Tories meeting with unions

Earlier this week I blogged about Cameron cuddling up to the City but it seems he is also seeking to build more cordial relations with the trade unions. The Guardian reports that the Conservative party's new trade union envoy, Richard Balfe, claims to have held around 20 meetings with union officials, several of whom belong to trade unions affiliated to Labour.

Balfe says his role is to;

"to reassure them that we want to know them and that the days of Thatcher are past. That we want a good constructive relationship and that we are not out to get them."

Bitterly ironic that the Conservatives should criticise Labour for being dependant on the unions when Balfe says that the possibility of them funding Conservative candidates has been discussed 'on the margins'. However, in reality this is unlikely to happen and the reward that the Conservatives are looking for is in terms of propaganda kudos for it's 'progressive coalition'.

Balfe has a point when he says that the unions must be feeling 'unloved' by the Labour Party but will that really be another to persuade them to have an affair with Cameron's Conservatives. I think not.

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Crucible of Terror - Part 2

Bloodbath

Ibn Saud now ruled over a people with a myriad of different tribal and religious identities. To add to his problems, the social base that he could claim among the ruled was thin. If the new territory were to be governable, then the creation of a unified identity was required. Given the fact that the new entity was created by conquest, with not a hint of any movement from below, this would have to come from above. In short, everything pointed to a bloodbath and that was exactly what happened.

Wahhabism was a minority religious sect that viewed intolerance of other strands of thought as a religious duty. They were ‘heretics’ and therefore their treatment as sub-human was more than justified. As an ideology it was therefore well equipped for the task in hand: the unleashing and justification of mass terror. The Saud loyalist Ikhwan were the obvious choice to carry out that terror. They formed the core of the Committee for Advancement of Virtue and Elimination of Sin (Caves), a body which exists to this very day. Religious and non-religious dissenters were butchered, as the Ikhwan murdered their way across the newly acquired territory. Houses were ransacked and whole towns were razed to the ground. Singing was forbidden, flowerpots were smashed, and telephone lines were cut because they were the work of the devil.

Eventually Saud became weary of their growing power. In turn they questioned his close relationship with Britain. Saud, however, had no intention of ending his reliance on Britain and the stage was set for the inevitable showdown. They rebelled against Saud, but the support of the British gave him the edge. Having served their purpose and secured the House of Saud’s domination, the Ikhwan were massacred (though they were reintegrated as the White Guard - later the National Guard).

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E-campaigning and us

Several debates have taken place on Liberal Democrat Voice and across the blogsphere about how best to approach the question of e-campaigning. Broadly speaking I think it is helpful to split political websites into two categories' 'talking to ourselves' and 'talking to others' by which I mean activists networks for debate and news and places where we actively campaign to win support for our ideas and our party. One of the things that has initially impressed me is how proactive we are in the latter category things like the Focus newsletter show a willingness to reach out which does have an impact. Canvassing the other day I was told that the Liberal Democrats would have a vote due to the fact that the other two parties were unseen. This is something that we can be proud of but I think in the internet sphere can be built-on; so with all this in mind I would like to take you, the reader, on a short tour of the blogosphere stateside.

I have to confess a vested interest when it comes to Daily Kos, I blog there and have done for a few months ever since the site came to my attention due to a news item about a 'strike' by pro-Clinton bloggers. This has meant that it is now effectively the writing venue of choice for Obamite Democrat activists. Registering entitles you (after a week) to posting rights on one 'diary' entry a day, the plus-side of this is that it keeps content fresh and varied the downside is that it is restrictive.

Kos is a good example into activists talking to activists category as is Democratic Underground. Move On is the archetypal example of a campaigning website and a testimony to the influence it can have; it has more than 3 million members and is a campaigning force to be reckoned with. It has an explicitly outward focus looking to get people involved not just in it's campaigns but politics as a whole. It describes its 'Operation Democracy' as a;

“ network of committed volunteers who go beyond email and organize hard-hitting events in their community.”


Who;

“work together to hold our elected officials accountable, and lay the groundwork for electoral victories in 2008,”


and;


“specialize in rapid-response events so we can act on issues while they're still hot.”


My feeling is that in the United Kingdom there is something a separation between politics, political ideas and organised parties. The state assumes the responsibility for 'educating' people in general democratic principles through the medium of things like citizenship classes while the parties stand separate from this process. Of course educational neutrality is how things should be but that doesn't prevent the parties undertaking a vigorous outreach policy independently Given the relative positions of the parties it is clear that ours is best aligned to undertake one of these thus creating a loyal periphery who are loyal because the body of ideas that represents their vision of not just how they want to see their own lives bettered but the lives of others too.

Liberal Democrat News has established the the basic concept of a Party newspaper which is a good one. Newspapers traditionally can cross the gap between inward and outward focus. However, they have to provide a more varied diet than 100% pure politics if they are to have that broad appeal necessary to reach a wider layer of people. Culture, sport wider life-style issues would all have to make an appearance as a reflection of the necessity of providing people with a varied news diet. Is it absurd to want to see Lib Dem writers writing about Premiership football?

Our coverage in the wider media, even in sympathetic papers like The Guardian, is not the best or the most far-reaching and can often be often reduced to boiling down to focusing on our relationship with the 'Big Two'. This is largely a result of our standing as the third party but it creates a challenge and an opportunity which things like Lib Dem News and Focus start to address but can be taken further especially when it comes to our use of the medium of the internet. Opportunities exist for broadening our base and our horizons using the medium of the internet. Both Liberal Democrat News and Liberal Democrat Voice are essentially activist tools; my specific proposal is that the Focus approach be given a national web presence with it being given a broad remit to try and draw in supporters and members. I think an open-ended debate on this question is important....so who will get the ball rolling??


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Wednesday, 28 May 2008

'No Platform' is dangerous nonsense

Sunny Hundal is very upset on Liberal Conspiracy. The cause of his angst is the fact that the Daily Telegraph is hosting a blog by Richard Barnbrook, a British National Party councillor for London. It is very easy to set-up a blog and a 'My Telegraph' account - I did it earlier so clearly if the Telegraph were to deny Barnbrook a blog it would have to answer the question as to why it was doing this. Sunny is on safe ground when he says that some of Barnbrook's politics may well be in line with the editorial line of the Telegraph (though it's worth remembering that this 'line' is generally more sophisticated than the crude popularism of the Daily Mail).

Sunny says;

"Now, I don’t have a problem with letting the BNP speak or letting the assorted fascists exercise their legal and democratic rights.

So, let them advertise in the Ham and High. Let them speak at City Hall if they’re democratically elected. But giving them a platform on your website so they can spout their racial hatred? That’s quite different. That is a low, even for the Telegraph."

Since the Telegraph blogging platform is open the BNP could reasonably argue if they are kicked off it then that is a denial of their democratic rights. The more fuss that leftist bloggers make about them the more publicity receive and the more time we spend arguing against them being given a platform the better for the BNP because we are spending less time and energy exposing their ideas.

'No platforming' is the best publicity device the BNP could devise -it automatically places them outside the 'political establishment' which is a position that they relish and trade-off with those disaffected from politics. The left's inability and unwillingness to take the BNP head-on hints at a terrible timidity and weakness. One of the most positive things to come out of the debate on Liberal Conspiracy was that the replies showed a clear majority against 'no platform' which shows that the tide is turning against this way of dealing with the BNP; hopefully energy will be spent tackling them head-on.

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Mental health costs 'to spiral'

My second blog today about the projected rise in costs of something - an occurrence that makes me glad for the invention of the world spiral which at least means I can partially avoid the impression that this blog is a homage to the Lighthouse Family's song High. Again this story comes from the BBC - it reports that the cost of caring for people with mental health problems is set to rise from £47bn a year, compared with £22.5bn in 2007 according to the Kings Fund study.

This will be mainly due to a "predicted rise in the number of people with dementia". The study says; "early detection of mental problems and prompt therapy could help the wider economy by keeping those affected in work." Now, this is all well and good but I can't help wondering where this emphasis on prevention when it comes to tackling other mental health problems like depression and perhaps more urgently the alarming rise in instances of self-harm amoung young people. Would it be overly cynical to suggest that the reason that these problems don't receive the same attention is because of the relative lack of impact these problems have on the economy - ie, young people are often not fully-fledged economic 'units' in the way older people would be?

It is not an either/or equation - nobody is suggesting that dementia sufferers should be denied the resources that they need. Prevention is always better than having to administer a cure in the long-run and so it is with the multitude of problems caused by self-harm. The resources should be made available to tackle that problem too and the prevention ethos should be a central plank of government policy.

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Nuclear clean up cost soars

One of the lynchpin arguments of the nuclear power lobby is that it is supposed to be, relative to other energy sources, economical. However, a story on the BBC this morning explodes that myth. It reports that the cost of cleaning-up the UK's ageing nuclear facilities, including some described as "dangerous", looks set to rise above £73bn.

Nineteen sites are due to be dismantled. At the largest site, Sellafield, on the Cumbrian coast, the BBC reporter says that he saw;

"one of the "ponds" in which an unknown mass of radioactive material was dumped in the 1950s. Beneath the unruffled surface of the water lies an unrecorded collection of rusting metal containers holding everything from nuclear fuel rods to radioactive waste."

Hardly a pretty picture. We can safely say that this source of energy is neither environmentally nor economically sound.

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Tuesday, 27 May 2008

Crucible of Terror - Part 1

Most westerners know comparatively little is about Saudi Arabia and the House of Saud which rules it. Yet western powers - first Britain, then the United States - have been instrumental in elevating the House of Saud to the position it currently occupies and in maintaining its rule against all odds. In return, the House of Saud has acted in support of western policy objectives in the region although it's recent refusal to assist with lowering the price of oil are a good indication of how conditional that support can be. However, they are hardly ideal partners in a ‘war on terrorism’ that, ideologically, has been wrapped in ‘democratic’ packaging. It is a cruel despotism and worse it provides ideological and logistical succor to the most extremist forms of Islam.

All this belies the family's rather humble origins as one tribe amongst the many vying for power and influence on the Arabian peninsula; in 1744 Muhammad ibn Saud was a tribal chief and ruler of Dir’aiyah (a village now on the outskirts of the current Saudi capital, Riyadh). He allied himself with Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, a conservative religious thinker; Wahhab gave his name to Wahhabism. Wahhabism was and is a particularly puritanical version of Islam that put a stress on the purity of religious practice, conservative social standards and the unity of one god.

From their base in Dir’aiyah the Saudis (here meaning members of the Al-Saud tribe, not Saudi Arabians) expanded their influence steadily through the region. A clutch of cities fell under their domination. However, the area was under the sway of the Ottoman Empire. Muhammad Ali, a governor of Cairo and Ottoman satrap, was instructed by his masters to put down the irksome Saudi insurgency. Eventually his son, Ibrahim Pasha, drove the Saudis back to Dir’aiyah, which in 1819 was razed to the ground. Though the Al-Sauds surfaced again in 1845 - ruling Riyadh until 1891, when it fell to the Al-Rashid family - they were eventually driven into exile in Kuwait.

However, by the end of the 19th century the star of the Ottomans had waned. All of its borders were threatened. The Balkan countries rose in open revolt and, encouraged by the big European powers, started to create a whole patchwork of rival nation states. To the east, tsarist Russia was encroaching on its territory, defeating the Ottomans in 1877. Britain and France looked to extend their empires in the near-east. Britain successfully invaded Egypt in 1881 and France invaded Tunisia during the same year. Internally, the Caliphate was wracked by dissent and bureaucratic intrigue.

Thus, by the time World War I broke out in 1914, the ‘sick man of Europe’ was already on its last legs. The eventual victory of France, the United States and Britain against the Triple Alliance sealed the Ottoman Empire’s fate. Its territory was part of the spoils of victory. The Middle East was divided into British and French protectorates.

Meanwhile, the eventual founder of Saudi Arabia, Abdel Aziz Abdel Rahman Al-Saud (or Ibn Saud), had begun to claw back the land lost by the Al-Sauds. He recaptured Riyadh in 1902. In doing so he gave an early indication of his personal ruthlessness and the carnage that was to follow his ascension to power. He spiked the heads of his enemies on the city gates and burned over 1,000 people to death. Despite this early success, Ibn Saud recognised that he needed sponsorship from a major imperial power if he was to prevent a repeat of the debacle of the previous century and finally defeat the Al-Sauds’ tribal enemies.

Initially, he sought sponsorship from the sultanate of Turkey, but he was rebuffed and forced to look elsewhere. Britain had signed a treaty with Faisal Al-Saud, Ibn’s grandfather, in 1865, and so it had had some contact with the Al-Sauds previously. Now, Britain wanted allies in the region to give it a foothold within the territory of the decaying Ottoman Empire. The more allies it had, the greater its share of the Ottoman booty would be. Ibn needed Britain’s logistical and military aid to decisively defeat and subjugate his enemies. From the point of view of both parties it was a marriage made in heaven.

Contact was thus established in 1904. Britain agreed to advance Ibn Saud small subsidies, but beyond that did little. These subsidies were used to expand and maintain colonies of Wahhabi fanatics, the Ikhwan, which would later form the backbone of Ibn Saud’s conquering army. World War I saw the Al-Sauds’ tribal enemies, like the Ibn Rasheeds, siding with Turkey. Ibn Saud thus attacked them with Britain’s blessing. Small subsidies became larger and a gaggle of advisers, alongside what was then advanced military equipment, were despatched to assist Ibn Saud’s advance.

Afforded a decisive advantage by Britain’s backing and able to make use of Ikhwan fanaticism, Ibn Saud was able to bring the whole of eastern Arabia under his control by 1917. Britain’s vision of Arabia’s fate following Turkish defeat was clear: in the words of Lord Crewe it wanted “a disunited Arabia split into principalities under our suzerainty”. For his part, Ibn Saud, was, by and large, happy to acquiesce.

However, another British protégé in the region, the Hashemite monarch, King Hussein, was far from content. He had taken western Arabia, but was less servile than Saud and was not keen on British “suzerainty”, much preferring to exercise his own over an enlarged, independent and unified Arab nation. Rather than directly attack its erstwhile ally, Britain gave Ibn Saud free reign to do the job. As Britain had pledged itself in 1915 to defend Ibn Saud’s territory, he was fighting a war that he could not lose. By 1925 the Hijaz, an area that included Mecca, Medina and the most urbanised parts of Arabia, had succumbed to his armies.

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Clinton about to concede??

Guido Fawkes thinks she is, he says that " a mid-level Hillary campaign source" says her speechwriters are drafting a concession speech and not a moment before time either. I decided to investigate on Daily Kos but could find no evidence of the largely Obamaite commeteriat breaking open the bubbly just yet; so lacking any joy I resorted to the desperate Googling of said rumours. Still no joy.

CNN carries no mention of the story either. So, just where does this story come from?? Is it fevered Guido's imagination? For once I hope not. Meanwhile, Political Betting has an interesting article on whether endorsement's matter.

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Luke's loss of perspective

Luke Akehurst writes an interesting if not rather obviously New Labourish blog. Today his guns are aimed squarely at Guardian readers and their concerns. Interesting how he spits the name of the newspaper out like a Daily Mail reader would which probably says alot about his perspective. His handle are comments by former Blair speechwriter, Phil Collins, who says that Labour is in the midst of a "tragedy". The root cause of this tragedy, Collins feels, is Labour being in the "thrall to the Fabian branch of its history for decades, even as its purchase on the world has loosened."

It is worth pointing out that Collins comments amount to much more than that and he does cite "a combination of strategic errors, political mishaps and bad luck." However, he does ultimately take aim at Brown and those who place their faith in the "benign" power of the central state. Now, Luke correctly says that;

"There were many reasons why people didn't vote for us in Crewe, such as being incandescent with rage about a botched attempt to double their income tax, or in despair that its costing more than they can afford to fill up their car or do their weekly shop."

His problem is that the message coming for the Labour Party is that the best way to solve these things is through 'Dour but dependable' Gordon Brown and yes, you've guessed it, his stewardship of the state. Another major problem is that this faith in the state permeates an awful lot right through to the mistaken belief that 'democracy' would be shot through the barrell of American guns to the hapless Iraqi's. So, in short Collins has a point though it is a bit rich coming from an ultra-Blairite.

In a situation where the working classes are deserting Labour in droves Luke's party is becoming increasingly dependant on the goodwill of the self-same Guardian readers he seems to loathe so much. Since that is unlikely to exist as Labour rolls on viciously attacking civil liberties left, right and centre (who would be a smoker and vote Labour now) it makes me wonder what Luke would do; furthermore these sought of issues may not be at the forefront of peoples minds but they almost certainly will demoralise the ever diminishing pool of Labour numbers who must be wondering why they stick around in the foreigner-bashing, ID card touting Party.

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Monday, 26 May 2008

Class war and scepticism on Conservative Home

Euroscepticism is dead, that is at least according to Richard North on the EU Referendum blog. However, do not despair (or indeed break out the bubbly) say the posters on C0nservative Home. Sally Roberts says;

"Euroscepticism is not dead, its just waiting for the platform of government to re-emerge. Eventually the UK is going to have to decide whether to adopt the Euro or not."

Clearly the posters are waiting for David Cameron to perform the role of knight-in-shining armour. Donal Blaney puts it thus;

"'hush now our little skeptics, all in good time, all in good time."

Littletwo also sees the role of a Cameron government as actively promoting euroscepticism;

"Assuming that an incoming Cameron Government remains broadly Eurosceptical, they would do well to expose, pointedly, every EU law which they have to enact......Honesty is what the public craves from its politicians. The measure would be popular and public opinion would swing, inexorably, to more active Euroscepticism."

Meanwhile, while the Conservatives made much of Labour's 'class war' tactics in Crewe but are busy fighting the class war for their own 'side' - against so-called 'liberal elites'. Conservative Home gives prominence to an article by Melanie Phillips' entitled 'Overclass values created the underclass'. Replying to a Sunday Times article by India Knight Phillips said;

"It was the champagne socialist intelligentsia which destroyed the traditional family, demonised men, incentivised mass fatherlessness and declared never-married motherhood an inalienable human right, emptied education of content and cut off the escape routes out of disadvantage by withering the grammar schools, declared morality to be a dirty word, paralysed the police through political correctness, enslaved the poor through dependency on the state and then finally destroyed their brains by telling them to eat cannabis cake while themselves showing the way by snorting cocaine on the Square Mile or in recording studios, or getting legless on Crackdaddy cocktails at Boujis nightclub."

So, on-top of contempt for lesbians, 'villain' bad parents, 'scruffy' teachers we have the carefully concealed attempt for Europe and the hatred of 'political correctness'. people who 'destroyed traditional family values' and so on; not much new about Cameron's Conservatives is there??

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FIFA suspends Iraqi football team

CNN reports that footballs governing body, FIFA provisionally suspended the Iraqi national team from international football. The ban, which will last for one year, is due to a government decision to disband the sport's national organising association. A governmental decree last week dissolved the Iraqi National Olympic Committee and all national sport federations, including the football association.

The government now has until Thursday to reverse its decree. If this does not happen then FIFA has said it will present the one-year suspension to the FIFA Congress meeting in Sydney, Australia on Friday. Controversy over the decree has pitted Iraqi Vice President, Tariq al-Hashimi who has urged Iraqi President Jalal Talabani to annul the decree, against Iraq's Cabinet which voted last Tuesday to "freeze the work" of the executive office of the country's Olympic committee and all its federations.

According to a senior government official, who asked not to be named, talking to CNN the Cabinet's action was brought about because of corruption charges against the Olympic committee.

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Sunday, 25 May 2008

Government plans new anti-smoking measures

Health minister Alan Johnson has said that the government is considering a ban on cigarette vending machines, removing cigarettes from display in shops and outlawing the sale of packets of 10. He said that he would be launching a consultation paper on new anti-smoking measures next week.

In remarks quoted on Reuters he said that;

"Banning vending machines where you can't have any control over the age of the person who's buying it -- it happened in many other European countries a long time ago with startling results.

"Whether you should be able to buy 10 cigarettes or whether you should insist that you can only buy 20, that's an issue we need to look at very closely."


I have to confess a vested interest - I smoke. Politically smokers are pariahs subjected to heavy taxation and now their rights are increasingly under attack. It simply isn't fashionable to stand up for their rights and that is why it has to be done, besides Johnson's logic is fuzzy. Going from packs of 20 to packs of 10 is one of the ways that smokers cut down their intake as a possible step towards quitting so rather than encouraging them on that path the government now wants to outlaw the packs of 10.

It is true that vending machines can't regulate a person's age but they are generally placed in age-prohibitive places like bars - at the very least they should be allowed to remain there. Displaying cigarettes is neither here nor there, teenagers are more likely to be influenced by peers or parents rather than a shops display window. The government would be far better advised to spend it's time and money on serious anti-smoking programmes which are educationally preventative or else improving resources for services tackling the causes of smoking rather than drafting more socially authoritarian legislation.

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No Johnson dynasty in Henley

Keeping it in the family didn't work for Labour in Crewe and Nantwich and it looks like the Conservatives have decided that a Johnson political dynasty in Henley wouldn't work either. The Daily Mail reports that Stanley Johnson, Boris's father, hopes of inheriting his son's seat have been dashed by David Cameron.

Following Boris's victory in the London mayoral race Stanley had expressed some hopes of being put forward for the seat. However, Tory strategists feel that Johnson senior entering parliament would be a 'complete disaster' and only serve to remind voters of Johnson juniors huge gaffe potential.

Celebrity chef Antony Worrall Thompson was in the frame but according to the report Cameron 'charmed' the local party into shortlisting three local councillors. A decision is expected next week with the writ for the election expected to be issued as soon as MP's return from their Whitsun break next week.

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Saturday, 24 May 2008

City cuddles up to Cameron

The Times reports that a growing number of large companies are approaching the Conservative Party looking for meetings in the hope of shaping policy. Alan Duncan, the Shadow Business Secretary, has recently met the chief executives or chairmen of BP, Shell, Vodafone, EdF and Total. The Tories have promised to cut corporation tax from 28p to 25p, although they plan to cut research and development tax allowances.

Some companies have started 'double briefing' - setting up shadow public affairs departments to improve relations with the Tories. For it's part the Conservatives have been busy building links over the past 18 months through Conservative Business Relations. Other organisations like City Circle and City Future seek to foster links between the City and the party that they obviously see as the next governing party.

I can't help but being struck how the two main parties seem to be returning to their traditional posture. Business is cosying up to the Conservative's and obviously receiving a rich reward in the promised cut in corporation tax, while Labour is increasingly financially reliant on the unions. This can hardly be a good thing for democracy as a whole.

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Friday, 23 May 2008

The global game

The Economist carries an interesting piece celebrating the recent success of British teams in the Champions League. Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United have all reached at least one Champions League final in the past four years. If you add in Rangers making the UEFA Cup final this year then that is an impressive record. However, as the article rightly notes that is not due to the success of home grown talent - something attested to by the fact that none of the Home Nations will be present at the European Championships this summer.

The article lambasts the comments of Sepp Blatter, the president of FIFA, and his supporter Michel Platini, the head of UEFA, who have cited English dominance of the Champions League as proof of the need to restrict how many foreigners a team may field. In this I feel it is totally correct as it is when it cites the cause of the lack of home grown talent as being the inadequate training infrastructure. However, it stops short of recognising that the solution to that problem does lie in the Premier Leagues "financial clout".

Sport is not like any other commercial activity. In the season which saw plans for a money-spinning 39th game derailed there have been plenty of reminders that it is less a business in the orthodox sense of the word and more a community activity. If the Premier League was encouraged to plough more money into infrastructure then it would potentially reap the rewards in developing a rich seam of talent at a potentially much lower price than a given club would have to pay to buy a player in - so it would be a virtuous circle.

It is only a matter of time before the football bubble bursts with Manchester Uniteds debts presenting it with challenging times ahead. So, speculating to accumulate could reap rewards for us all; how clubs can be creatively encouraged to do that is another discussion.

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FHOC Update - Lib Dems official oppostion

Well I promised the occasional update from the Facebook House of Commons so here it is. The Liberal Democrats have been made the official opposition and Nikki Thomson, the leader of the Liberal Democrat group is now the official leader of the opposition. The Commons itself now has 383 members with 115 of them are Liberal Democrats. Suspiciously the Conservatives seem to be almost entirely absent or inactive.

Currently the our position on Iraq is being considered for submission on Monday. Perhaps unsurprisingly this is not a particularly controversial issue. The question has been raised over striking a balance between opposing the government and not demoralising troops and slight skepticism about the viability of a full withdrawal. However, there is a clear majority in favour of a phased withdrawal of troops. More updates to follow...

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A visit to the house of wounded feeling....

As you might well expect the Labour Home site is not exactly in celebratory mood today. Let's pay a visit to the house of wounded feeling.

Mike Ion is the lucky person who gets to answer the question 'Where do we go from here?' He feels that the "the real challenge to the continuation of the pursuit of a progressive political agenda" is not a "a resurgent Tory party" but "defeatists, pessimists and cynics that exist within the Labour party itself." He calls for Labour to 'renew itself' and it's message but doesn't offer any concrete way to do this than to stop talking about Labour's 'achievements'. So, there isn't really any suggestion that he may think that the voters don't really like the messages Labour does deliver anymore which after the crass tactics in Crewe is naive to say the least.

In comments, Group 51 recognises the above;

"It's not just policy coherence and focus that's missing. It's politics."

Although there is one call for "more style as well as substance" the main complaints are about the political content of the Labour message. Trussman 5 puts it like this;

"Labour has become disconnected with the ordinary Joe Bloggs, it has become reactive instead of visionary and the cabinet is stale and filled with the same people as in the Blair administration give or take a few. "

Interestingly, in the same post he seems to be sharing a delusion of Tamsin Dunwoody's that the problem in Crewe was the fact that Labour's 'core vote' didn't turn out when they quite clearly did - they just didn't vote Labour. Last night and the night after the local elections saw government ministers and some Labour supporters spinning the same story, that people were kicking the government because they were concerned about their finances but that essentially nothing else is wrong. This is a dangerous delusion for Labour and shows that ultimately they expect an economic recovery to ride to their rescue. The aptly names Angry Voter recognises this is a problem;

"a 17% swing does not necessarily equate to a singular issue such as the economy, instead it seems to be a large myriad of issues."

Contributors calling for a leadership change were not as numerous as you might expect andycharlwood argued;

"now is not the time to panic and change the leadership. The great benefit of changing leader is that it makes people feel like they have had a change, so they don't need to vote Tory to make change happen. If we change leader this year, the honeymoon period with the electorate that any new leader will enjoy will have come to an end by the time of the next general election. We need to be patient and avoid panic."

The site also gives us graphic evidence of just how disenchanted the Labour 'core vote' is. Jannottingham describes herself as a "lifelong Labour supporter" whose grandfather died in a mining accident and whose grandmother told her that "without the the support of the local labour party who helped her she would have had nothing." However, the "description my grandmother knew of the Labour Party is no longer there", she feels it has "stopped listening".

All-in-all a visit to Labour Home increases the feeling that the party is adrift with little hope of finding direction.

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Thursday, 22 May 2008

Up all night

So, the votes are counted and result is in and I have had a healthy couple of glasses of wine to keep the eyelids from drooping. Incidentally, quote of the night has to go to Eric Pickles who said on the BBC results programme that "in order to get Liberal Democrat policies people were realising they had to vote Conservative." So, it is not Tony Blair's clothes that David Cameron is stealing but Nick Cleggs.

Seriously, the first statistic of note is the high turn-out - 58%. Previously discontented Labour voters have sat on their hands and stayed at home; it is clear this is no longer the case. People are now so fed-up that they are actually willing to go out and vote against Labour and this should seriously worry Labour.

Nobody will be surprised this morning to wake-up to find that Crewe and Nantwich has a Conservative MP. The majority of slightly under 8,00o is a crushing blow to Labour and must now call into question Gordon Brown's continued leadership. However, Labour is effectively caught in a double-bind because if they ditch Brown the impression of panic and a sinking ship may well be reinforced.

Satisfactory is a word that best encapsulates the Liberal Democrat vote; with a strong anti-government sentiment it is to be expected that the main opposition party and thus it proved. In those circumstances a slight squeeze is expected. The 7.1% swing away from Labour shows where our main opportunity lies; in giving a voice to those disenfranchised by the Labour Party and it's policies who don't think the Conservatives can speak for them. Our challenge is to build the infrastructure to challenge the two main parties, especially in seats where we have a small vote. We are developing a loyal voter base which will stick with us, if just 1% of Elizabeth Shenton's vote could be persuaded into some kind of activity supporting the party that would be 60 new activists. Onwards to Henley!

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'Goodbye to you....'

It says an awful lot about Labour that it would be an upset if they win Crewe and Nantwich tonight. Things can only get better was Tony Blair's anthem but now the tune has changed with the its 'core vote' bellowing out an angry rendition of Anastasia's Sick and Tired. It is not entirely true that there is nothing that can save Labour now but there is close to nothing that can save it; yes two years is a long time but the tide of public sentiment against it is awfully strong and all flowing in one direction. Progressive steps have been taken but it's all been squandered in a thousand wasteful ways and now Labour is paying a price. Expect a struggle with Brown being an early casualty - the drive to self-preservation is a powerful motivating force and if Crewe goes blue then an awful lot of Labour MP's will be starring anxiously at the size of their majorities.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are marching forwards not just in terms of winning seats in votes but in terms of how they are perceived in the wider public eye. They are a force for change and people think that they would be better; people don't see or follow the voting record of the Conservatives which shows that little has changed about the Party outside the cosmetic. No Clause 4 moment has been forthcoming and Cameron is keeping 'Top of the Pop's' by putting forward as little in terms of concrete policy as is humanly possible while still maintaining a semblance of having a coherent vision for government.

'Nicer', more 'compassionate' Conservatism is a myth spun by Cameron to make his party more electorally palatable. The voting figures expose him as a minority within his own party and while some will scoff and say that a fresh intake will be different it is worth pondering who actually selects Conservative candidates. Is it entirely Central Office or is it the unreconstructed local parties whose dearly cherished beliefs find their most fervent expression in the editorial columns of the Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph? Expect power when it is eventually won to become a burden to Cameron as he struggles to maintain a tight ship.

So where does that leave us, the Liberal Democrat's. I hope it will leave us in second place in Crewe because if it does that will point the way and it will show that Labour's disaffected core vote is willing to look to us to give them a voice which they have lost during the course of this government. It will also show that our vote is not going to flake off in the Conservatives direction despite their obvious strength and good position to challenge the government.

If we do come second then we have a platform for opposition to a Conservative Party that is now the incoming government. We can turn round to voters and say that we are a strong party of opposition and that they should elect Liberal Democrat MP's if they do want that government held to account and that they want a voice for social justice against a party which flies it as a flag of convenience.

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Clinton has lost - Kagan

The Hillary Clinton campaign is clearly in the denial stage of grief at losing it's once sure grip on the Democratic nomination. It is highly likely that Obama will be able to secure a majority of pledged delegates before the convention in August. However, her campaign soldiers on aided and abetted by the occasional big win. The political reality is though that she has lost and the only thing her campaign can achieve is to damage the Democrat's prospects of winning the White House.

Republicans increasingly recognise that Obama is the nominee and the latest one to do that is Robert Kagan who advises John McCain on foreign policy. In remarks reported on Sky News he said that;

"For several weeks now, it has been very clear who's going to win. I don't think anyone in the US really doubts that it's going to be Barack Obama."

He also highlighted the damage that Hilliary Clinton has done to Obama's candidacy;

"Barack Obama has shown vulnerabilities with certain types of voters in key states. Hillary Clinton has exposed those vulnerabilities," he said.

No matter what her supporters say Clinton's campaign has become increasingly self-serving and there is little justification for it to continue.

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Wednesday, 21 May 2008

Conservatives leak voter data in Crewe and Nantwich

Gordon Brown has certainly had plenty of trouble when it comes to data leakages and the Conservatives were quick to capitalise however it is now their turn to be under the spotlight for the blundering release of information. The Information Commissioner is launching an investigation after the Conservatives accidentally sent an e-mail containing the names, addresses, telephone numbers and intentions of voters in Crewe and Nantwich.

Manx radio station received the e-mail at lunchtime on Wednesday. It sent it