Wednesday, 17 December 2008

Polls 'underestimate' Liberal Democrat support - Politics Home

. A grab from Politics Home's 'PH100' column;

"The Lib Dems have been suffering from a squeeze in their rating in some opinion polls, falling as low as twelve per cent in one recent poll.

Our experts and insiders on the PHI100 reckon this is not a reliable indicator of how they will actually perform in a general election: a warning to both the Tories and Labour not to take it for granted that the Lib Dems are really doing as badly as some polls have indicated. Forty five per cent of the panel reckon that the polls are under-estimating the likely vote for Nick Clegg's party. Just six per cent believe that the polls are over-estimating Lib Dem support. Thirty nine per cent of our experts and insiders, who include senior politicians and key strategists from all the main parties, think the polls are getting it about right.

Mind you, as several panellists point out, the polls disagree with each other about the size of the Lib Dem vote."

Full article here...

2 comments:

Jennie said...

ComRes's sample is just 9% people who voted Lib Dem last time, when, in fact, 20% did. This shows just how skewed the polling companies' samples are, and thus how unreliable they are.

Darrell G said...

Jennie,

You make a valid point especially in relation to using one individual poll as gospel but they can show us trends taken together....