Sunday, 21 September 2008

Labour leadership crisis...why Brown won't go.

. Ok, so let's be honest; Gordon Brown doesn't cut the mustard. He missed his one chance at delivering a fourth term for Labour when he failed to call an election last autumn. Some of the things that have happened have been the governments fault; some haven't but none of that really matters now. People hate it and want it gone; they want new government. If they don't have specific grievance then the 'time for a change' mood is now the prevailing mood so they are opposed on those grounds. If an election was held tomorrow then Labour would be wiped out and we would probably post a reduction in seats too.

This is one good reason why there will be no change in the Labour leadership. Switching from Tony Blair to Gordon Brown just about scraped through with the public but a third leader? The call for a General Election would be hard to resist and Labour would be all to vulnerable to claims their leader lacks mandate. So, the unfortunate soul would be effectively boxed into calling an election if not this autumn then next spring. Any such election would be likely to be fairly disastrous for Labour so it is not as if any sane politician would want to put themselves in the position of captaining the Titanic. Another good reason that Brown won't go; you would have to be pretty brave or myopically ambitious to want to replace him, far better to let him lose and start with a relatively clean slate even if that is in opposition.

The above mentioned facts all mean that enough of the Parliamentary Labour Party are unlikely to fancy putting their jobs on the line by forcing Brown from office. If you are nervously looking at the swingometre and fearing the loss of your seat it is a far safer bet to hope that by 2o10 the economy has picked up a little and people are more favourably disposed to Labour if not it's leader. So, expect alot of dull protestations of loyalty from Labour's party conference this week; in public at least.

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