Tuesday, 17 June 2008

Home and dry in Henley???

. Interesting post by Norfolk Blogger whose Conservative friend thinks that they are home and dry in Henley. NB also reports the betting markets heavily favouring the Tories. Mike Smithson on Political Betting disagrees; he thinks turnout could be the key. In that regard the Tories saying they are home and dry could be very counterproductive. If their supporters think it is a sealed deal then they may not turn out if it is rainy day.

Smithson argues that turnout is key; if it is high expect a comfortable Conservative win, if it is low a shock could be on the cards. He is getting the impression "that Nick Clegg’s party might just be in with a shout." He feels that things are "going to be much closer in terms of vote shares then the Conservatives are going to find comfortable."

So...not quite home and dry for Cameron's Conservatives then.


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