Friday, 27 June 2008

Henley - quick thoughts before bedtime

. I really must get some sleep....but a couple of quick thoughts, based on the Sky News prediction of an increased majority for the Conservatives.

This isn't hugely surprising but it is hugely disappointing, obviously we have picked up some Labour votes if the Sky prediction of 30% is borne out but nowhere near enough. I expect this to kick off a fundamental debate about the orientation of the Party and it should be discussing the themes that I sleepily mentioned. Our main dialogue has to be with disaffected Labour supporters by virtue of that being where the political motion is; it is by no means a done deal that Labour supporters are making the automatic switch to the Conservatives if indeed Labour has lost it's deposit and is behind the Green's and maybe even the BNP. Needless to say this looks like another bad night for Labour and one that should, by rights, spell the end for Gordon Brown. It is a confirmation of all the polling data that has followed it as Crewe and Nantwich was; if Labour are to have a chance they have to ditch Brown.

Our main loss of votes will have been to the Conservatives, 'true blues' returning home to a Party that under Cameron they feel they can safely vote for now; our main gain from Labour. In that regard our best hope of achieving position and good votes is to establish ourselves as the most effective and credible opposition to the incoming Conservative government; lest I get attacked again I have to mention the Davis decision is deeply unhelpful in that regard, that way we should begin to acrue of lion's share of dissaffected Labourites.

Anyways, off to bed....

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